There are five ways to foresee victory.
Those who know when to fight and when not to fight will win.
Those who know how to employ large or small forces properly will win.
Those whose superiors and subordinates share one will will win.
Those who meet the unprepared enemy with full preparation will win.
Those with capable generals who are free from royal interference will win.
These five points are the ways to know victory.
Note
A great military strategist and thinker in ancient China, who lived in the late Spring and Autumn Period. He authored The Art of War, the world’s earliest and most influential military classic. His strategic thoughts have been widely applied in military, politics and management worldwide.
Five rules for victory
A set of comprehensive criteria to judge the winning side, covering judgment, tactics, morale, preparation and power division.
Shared will
Unity between officers and soldiers, regarded as the foundation of military combat effectiveness.
Full preparation
Being well-guarded in advance, a basic military principle to seize initiative.
No royal interference
A key rule of military governance. Monarchs should respect the professional judgment of field generals.
The Case of Li Ling: A Violation of the Five Rules
The tragic campaign of General Li Ling serves as a perfect historical case study for Sun Tzu’s “Five Ways to Foresee Victory.” As the provided text suggests, Li Ling’s defeat was not merely bad luck; it was the inevitable result of violating nearly every one of these strategic laws. Let us analyze his errors through the lens of Sun Tzu’s formula:
Failure of Judgment: “Knowing When to Fight”
Sun Tzu: “Those who know when to fight and when not to fight will win.”
Li Ling’s Error: Li Ling displayed a critical lack of political and military judgment. He requested to lead 5,000 infantry deep into Xiongnu territory not out of strategic necessity, but out of personal ambition and a desire to outshine the incompetent favorite, Li Guangli. He ignored the fundamental military reality that infantry cannot operate deep in enemy cavalry territory without support. He chose to fight when he should not have.
Failure of Tactical Versatility: “Knowing the Use of Numbers”
Sun Tzu: “Those who know how to employ large or small forces properly will win.”
Li Ling’s Error: Li Ling grossly misunderstood the capabilities of his force. He believed his 5,000 “elite” infantry could achieve what even combined arms forces often struggled to do: defeat a nomadic cavalry army in its heartland. He failed to adapt his tactics to the reality of being vastly outnumbered and outmaneuvered. He treated his small force as if it were an unstoppable spear, rather than a fragile unit requiring protection.
Failure of Unity: “Superiors and Subordinates Share One Will”
Sun Tzu: “Those whose superiors and subordinates share one will will win.”
Li Ling’s Error: There was a catastrophic breakdown in unity at multiple levels:
- With the Monarch: Emperor Wu of Han was already skeptical and had refused to give him cavalry. Li Ling proceeded anyway, against the implied will of his ruler.
- With Allies: He failed to maintain coordination with General Lu Bode, who was supposed to be his relief force. Due to jealousy and poor communication, Lu Bode withheld support, leaving Li Ling isolated.
- Political Isolation: Li Ling lacked allies at court. When he was fighting for his life, there was no one in the capital to defend him or urge the Emperor to send aid.
Failure of Preparation: “Meeting the Unprepared with Preparation”
Sun Tzu: “Those who meet the unprepared enemy with full preparation will win.”
Li Ling’s Error: Li Ling was the one who was unprepared. He lacked cavalry for reconnaissance and screening, he lacked a viable logistical tail, and he lacked an escape route. Conversely, the Xiongnu (led by the Chanyu) were highly prepared. They mobilized 80,000 cavalry, cut off his retreat, and systematically wore him down. Li Ling walked into a trap without realizing it.
Failure of Command: “Free from Royal Interference”
Sun Tzu: “Those with capable generals who are free from royal interference will win.”
Li Ling’s Error: This is the most tragic violation. Emperor Wu of Han was the epitome of destructive interference. He:
- Micromanaged: He assigned Li Ling to a secondary role (supply) and then promoted him to a lead role based on emotion rather than strategy.
- Withheld Resources: He refused to give Li Ling cavalry, a critical component for survival in the steppe.
- Created a Toxic Environment: The Emperor’s suspicion (e.g., suspecting Li Ling of not wanting to fight when Lu Bode delayed) created a climate of fear. This lack of trust meant that when Li Ling finally did need help, the Emperor was psychologically predisposed not to believe he was in real trouble or not to care.
Conclusion
The defeat of Li Ling was not an anomaly; it was a textbook example of how to lose a war. He violated all five of Sun Tzu’s laws. He lacked the judgment to say no, the tactical sense to know his limits, the unity to secure allies, the preparation to survive contact, and the protection from a meddling sovereign. His story stands in stark contrast to the wisdom of Chapter 3.5, proving that without these five pillars, even the bravest soldiers are destined for defeat.
故知勝者有五：知可以戰與不可以戰者勝，識眾寡之用者勝，上下同欲者勝，以虞待不虞者勝，將能而君不御者勝；此五者，知勝之道也。
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