The way of supreme sincerity enables one to foresee the future.
When a state is about to flourish, auspicious signs surely appear;
when a state is about to perish, monstrous omens surely arise.
These are revealed in the milfoil stalks and tortoise shells,
and manifested in one’s bodily movements and demeanor.
When fortune or misfortune is about to arrive –
if it is good, the supremely sincere person will know it in advance;
if it is ill, he will also know it beforehand.
Thus, the supremely sincere is like a spirit.
至誠之道，可以前知。
國家將興，必有禎祥；國家將亡，必有妖孽。
見乎蓍龜，動乎四體。
禍福將至：善，必先知之；不善，必先知之。
故至誠如神。
Note
This chapter from the Doctrine of the Mean, through the proposition that “the supremely sincere is like a spirit,” reveals the Confucian understanding of the relationship between moral cultivation and cosmic resonance – a synthesis of rational ethics and the doctrine of Heaven-human interaction.
First, “supreme sincerity enables foresight” does not promote mystical prophecy but emphasizes that when a person’s mind is utterly sincere and free from selfish desires, it becomes attuned to the principles of Heaven, Earth, and all things, allowing acute perception of emerging trends. This “foresight” is not supernatural but a heightened moral intuition grounded in deep comprehension of cosmic and human patterns. As Zhu Xi notes in his Commentary on the Doctrine of the Mean: “The Way of supreme sincerity, through resonance, achieves immediate understanding – thus enabling foresight.” The supremely sincere person, being in harmony with the Heavenly Way, discerns subtle signs before events unfold.
Second, “auspicious signs” and “monstrous omens” are not superstitious symbols but external manifestations of political morality. When governance is virtuous and just, Heaven and Earth respond in harmony, and auspicious phenomena arise; when tyranny prevails, cosmic balance is disrupted, and disasters emerge. This inherits the “Heaven-human resonance” tradition from the Book of Documents and Spring and Autumn Annals, yet Confucianism treats these as moral warnings rather than fatalistic decrees. The phrase “revealed in milfoil and tortoise shells, manifested in bodily movements” indicates that omens appear both in divinatory tools and in human conduct – those of supreme sincerity, with upright hearts, can detect these subtle signs.
Importantly, the term “spirit” (god) here does not refer to a personal deity but to a transcendent capacity for insight and resonance, akin to the Yi Zhuan’s description: “Still and unmoving, yet through resonance, comprehends all affairs under heaven.” Confucius taught to “revere spirits but keep them at a distance”; Confucianism values the virtue of the spirit, not its form, emphasizing harmonious resonance between the moral self and cosmic order.
Thus, this chapter does not endorse divination or superstition but uses symbolic language to convey a profound truth: true wisdom arises from inner sincerity; only the supremely sincere can pierce appearances and grasp the rhythm of the Heavenly Way, thereby anticipating fortune or misfortune and acting accordingly. It exemplifies how Confucian “inner sageliness” leads to “outer kingliness” – moral cultivation becoming practical wisdom.
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