Therefore, compare the two sides with these calculations to explore the real situation. We should ask: Which ruler governs with virtue? Which general has greater ability? Who commands the advantages of heaven and earth? Whose laws and orders are fully enforced? Which army is stronger? Whose soldiers are better trained? Whose rewards and punishments are fair and clear? By these standards, I can foresee victory and defeat.
If the general accepts my strategies and will win by applying them, I shall stay. If he rejects my strategies and will surely suffer defeat, I shall depart.
Note
A great military strategist and thinker in ancient China, who lived in the late Spring and Autumn Period. He authored The Art of War, the world’s earliest and most influential military classic. His strategic thoughts have been widely applied in military, politics and management worldwide.
Seven Calculations
A complete set of evaluation criteria from The Art of War, used to judge the overall strength of opposing sides before war.
Choose a lord to serve
A common idea among ancient Chinese strategists. They would leave if their strategies could not be put into practice.
Fair rewards and punishments
An important rule for managing troops and governing a country, which maintains order and morale.
The Application of the Seven Calculations
To illustrate these principles, let us examine the Battle of Guandu, a pivotal conflict during the late Han Dynasty where Cao Cao decisively defeated his rival, Yuan Shao. This battle is a perfect historical example of how the “Seven Calculations” determine the outcome of war.
The Ruler’s Morality and the General’s Ability
- Cao Cao: He was a hands-on ruler and a brilliant strategist. He treated his subordinates with respect and was open to advice. His ability to make quick, decisive decisions was unmatched.
- Yuan Shao: Although he came from a prestigious family and had a large army, he was indecisive and suspicious of his advisors. He often ignored the counsel of his best generals.
Result: Cao Cao scored higher on both “Ruler’s Morality” (uniting his men) and “General’s Ability”.
Heaven, Earth, and the Army’s Strength
- Cao Cao: His army was smaller (approx. 20,000-40,000 men) but highly mobile and experienced. He chose the defensive ground at Guandu, forcing Yuan Shao to overextend his supply lines.
- Yuan Shao: He had a massive numerical advantage (approx. 110,000 men). However, his supply lines were long and vulnerable. He failed to protect his logistical depot at Wuchao.
Result: Cao Cao maximized the “Advantage of Terrain” and nullified Yuan Shao’s superior numbers.
Laws, Training, and Discipline (Rewards & Punishments)
- Cao Cao: He was famous for his strict discipline and clear rewards. When his horse accidentally trampled a wheat field, he attempted to commit suicide (though stopped by his men), demonstrating that the law applied even to the commander. His soldiers were well-drilled and loyal.
- Yuan Shao: His camp was rife with infighting among advisors. His soldiers were numerous but lacked the cohesion and strict discipline of Cao Cao’s forces. His rewards and punishments were inconsistent.
Result: Cao Cao’s side excelled in “Laws enforced” and “Clear Rewards/Punishments”.
The Turning Point: Heeding Advice
- Cao Cao: When his advisor, Xun Yu, encouraged him to hold the line at Guandu despite being outnumbered, Cao Cao listened. He “accepted the strategy” and stayed to fight.
- Yuan Shao: His general, Tian Feng, advised against a direct assault and for a war of attrition. Yuan Shao rejected this advice, imprisoned Tian Feng, and launched a frontal attack. Because Yuan Shao “rejected the strategy,” defeat was inevitable.
- Xu You was once a key strategist for Yuan Shao. During the Battle of Guandu, he advised Yuan Shao to send a detachment to raid Cao Cao’s rear base at Xuchang. However, Yuan Shao stubbornly insisted on a direct confrontation. Xu You believed Yuan Shao was too obstinate and had missed a golden opportunity, which left him disheartened. Meanwhile, internal conflicts plagued Yuan Shao’s rear. Xu You’s family members, who had broken the law, were arrested by Yuan’s subordinate Shen Pei. After failing to plead for their release, Xu You felt both humiliated and endangered, so he defected to Cao Cao overnight. The two had been close friends since childhood. Upon hearing of Xu You’s arrival, Cao Cao rushed out barefoot to welcome him. Xu You then proposed a surprise attack on the enemy’s grain depot at Wuchao, leading Cao Cao to a decisive victory.
故校之以計，而索其情。曰：主孰有道，將孰有能，天地孰得，法令孰行，兵眾孰強，士卒孰練，賞罰孰明，吾以此知勝負矣。將聽吾計，用之必勝，留之；將不聽吾計，用之必敗，去之。
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