Whoever wins the pre-war deliberation in the ancestral temple possesses abundant advantages. Whoever loses such deliberation has few advantages.
Thorough planning leads to victory, while inadequate planning brings defeat. How much worse will it be for those who make no plans at all?
By observing this, we can foresee victory and defeat clearly.
Note
A great military strategist and thinker in ancient China, who lived in the late Spring and Autumn Period. He authored The Art of War, the world’s earliest and most influential military classic. His strategic thoughts have been widely applied in military, politics and management worldwide.
Deliberation in the ancestral temple (Miao Suan)
A unique ancient Chinese tradition. Before major wars, rulers, generals and ministers gathered in the temple or court to analyze the enemy, evaluate strengths and weaknesses and draw up battle plans. It was the highest-level strategic planning.
Pre-war planning
The core idea here. Sufficient and detailed planning is regarded as the foundation of victory in both war and state governance.
Chu-Han Contention
To illustrate the principle of “Thorough planning leads to victory,” let us examine the decisive struggle for supremacy in Chinese history: the conflict between Liu Bang (founder of the Han Dynasty) and Xiang Yu (the Hegemon-King of Chu). This war is the ultimate example of how superior strategic calculation (“Miao Suan”) can overcome a physically stronger but less organized opponent.
The Context: The Fall of Qin
After the collapse of the Qin Dynasty, China was divided. Xiang Yu was a peerless warrior, fierce and commanding a massive army. He was the “strong man” of his era. Liu Bang, formerly a minor official, was initially weaker in manpower but possessed a superior administrative mind.
The Application of “Miao Suan” (Temple Calculations)
According to Sun Tzu’s principle, Liu Bang excelled in “Thorough Planning” while Xiang Yu often relied on brute force and impulse, representing “Inadequate Planning.”
Liu Bang’s Strategy (The Winner with “Many Calculations”):
Liu Bang established a strict legal code and efficient logistics system in his fiefdom (Guanzhong). He listened to his advisors (like Zhang Liang and Xiao He) and calculated the “Five Factors” (Morale, Generalship, Support, Strategy, Discipline). He knew he could not beat Xiang Yu in a head-on fight, so he conserved his strength, secured his supply lines, and won the hearts of the people. This was a perfect execution of “Thorough planning leads to victory.”
Xiang Yu’s Strategy (The Loser with “Few Calculations”):
Xiang Yu, despite his military genius, was erratic. He failed to secure his rear, distrusted his advisors (like Fan Zeng), and relied on terror to rule. He did not perform the necessary “calculations” for long-term governance. His lack of planning for supply and alliances meant he was strong at first but weakened over time.
The Climax: The Battle of Gaixia (202 BC)
The war culminated at Gaixia. Liu Bang, having “many calculations,” had surrounded Xiang Yu with a coalition of forces. Xiang Yu, now “unprepared” and low on supplies, was trapped.
Liu Bang used a psychological tactic (the “Sound of Chu on All Sides”) to make Xiang Yu believe his homeland had fallen. This was the final blow made possible by Liu Bang’s superior planning. Xiang Yu, realizing he had lost the strategic advantage due to poor calculations, committed suicide.
Liu Bang became the Emperor Gaozu of Han. This historical outcome perfectly validates Sun Tzu’s assertion: “Thorough planning leads to victory, while inadequate planning brings defeat.”
夫未戰而廟算勝者，得算多也；未戰而廟算不勝者，得算少也；多算勝，少算不勝，而況於無算乎？吾以此觀之，勝負見矣。
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