Zhao cracked tortoise‑shells and counted milfoil stalks for divination; the oracle showed great good fortune, so it attacked Yan. Yan also performed tortoise‑shell and milfoil divination with the same great‑fortune omen and attacked Zhao.
Ju Xin served Yan yet achieved no merit, endangering the state. Zou Yan served Yan also with no success, cutting short Yan’s destiny.
Zhao first gained victory over Yan, then over Qi. Though internally chaotic and arrogant, it fancied itself equal to Qin. This was not because Zhao’s divination was divine while Yan’s was false.
Zhao again divined with tortoise‑shells and milfoil to march north against Yan, intending to coerce Yan to resist Qin; the omen still read great good fortune. Yet as Zhao began attacking Daliang, Qin seized Shangdang. When Zhao’s troops reached Li, Qin captured six Zhao cities. At Yangcheng, Qin took Ye. When Pang Yuan led troops south, all Zhang territory fell.
Thus I say: even if Zhao’s divination could not foresee long‑term outcomes with Yan, it should have perceived Qin’s immediate threat.
Qin profited territorially and gained fame by its “great‑fortune” omen; Zhao lost land, suffered military humiliation, and its ruler died in despair. Again, this was not due to Qin’s divine divination and Zhao’s false one.
Earlier, Wei campaigned east for years, seizing Tao and Wei territories; yet within years it lost its state through western campaigns. This was not because auspicious stars such as Feng Long, Wu Xing, Tai Yi stayed in the west for years, nor ill‑omened stars like Tian Que, Hu Ni, Ying Huo lingered in the east for years.
Therefore: tortoise‑shell, milfoil, ghosts and spirits cannot determine victory or defeat; stellar positions and directions cannot dominate warfare. To rely on such things is the height of folly.
Note
This passage rejects fatalism and supernatural governance: divination and astrology cannot decide war outcomes. True national security comes from legal governance, state power and human strategy, not blind superstition.
Late Warring‑States Legalist philosopher. This passage is excerpted from Exposing Superstition (Shi Xie), arguing against supernatural divination and emphasizing human political action.
Ju Xin
General of Yan State, failed to achieve military success and weakened Yan.
Zou Yan
Famous scholar of the Yin‑Yang school, served Yan but brought no practical state benefits.
Pang Yuan
Zhao general involved in wars against Qin.
Tortoise‑shell & Milfoil Divination (Gui‑ce)
Ancient Chinese royal divination using tortoise shells and milfoil stalks to predict war and state fortune, widely trusted in pre‑Qin politics.
Stellar Astrology
In Warring‑States period, people believed star positions governed national luck; Han Fei lists traditional auspicious and ill‑omened stars to refute this belief.
Legalist Anti‑Superstition
Core Legalist idea: state rise and fall depend on law, governance and human effort, not ghosts, gods or fate.
Real‑World War Examples
Han Fei uses Yan‑Zhao‑Qin‑Wei conflicts to prove identical divination omens lead to opposite outcomes, discrediting supernatural prediction.
鑿龜數筴，兆曰大吉，而以攻燕者趙也。鑿龜數筴，兆曰大吉，而以攻趙者燕也。劇辛之事，燕無功而社稷危。鄒衍之事，燕無功而國道絕。趙代先得意於燕，後得意於齊，國亂節高，自以為與秦提衡，非趙龜神而燕龜欺也。趙又嘗鑿龜數筴而北伐燕，將劫燕以逆秦，兆曰大吉，始攻大梁而秦出上黨矣，兵至釐而六城拔矣，至陽城，秦拔鄴矣，龐援揄兵而南則鄣盡矣。臣故曰：趙龜雖無遠見於燕，且宜近見於秦。秦以其大吉，辟地有實，救燕有有名。趙以其大吉，地削兵辱，主不得意而死。又非秦龜神而趙龜欺也。初時者魏數年東鄉攻盡陶、衛，數年西鄉以失其國，此非豐隆、五行、太一、王相、攝提、六神、五括、天河、殷搶、歲星非數年在西也，又非天缺、弧逆、刑星、熒惑、奎台非數年在東也。故曰：龜筴鬼神不足舉勝，左右背鄉不足以專戰。然而恃之，愚莫大焉。
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